My Personal Investment Thesis

As a long-time investor / trader my investment have formed from many people however the most influential are: Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Jeff Bezos. Peter Lynch is famous for investing in what you know, Warren Buffett is a fan of investing at the right price, and Jeff Bezos is a guy that likes to fail fast and invest in ideas that are going to change the world (disruptors). With that being said my investing thesis can be summed up in five pillars. While it never hurts to hold a large basket of equities the following are what I would use for my own pick and choose strategy at the moment:

Deep Value - things that are woefully undervalued, sometimes maybe even intrinsically. In the era of climate change things like Tesla cars are all the rage, and while Tesla is doing great things, the reality is that electric cars still run on fossil fuels, just a different sort of fuel that nobody thinks of, ie, natural gas. Natural Gas comes from none other than drilling for oil and our dependence on natural gas is large and only increasing. Even if you hate the idea of oil, the idea that oil is going to go away is a fool's errand that has become incredibly powerful with the pressure of investing in oil companies being social suicide in the PC era. While of course it will happen someday the reality is we will be dependent on fossil fuels for far longer than we are led to believe.

While this is just one example of value that is current, many commodities and things of intrinsic value have been thrown by the wayside as unimportant, but hardly anyone can argue with the likes of sand, concrete, aluminum, copper, cotton and various other metals. All may present opportunities when significantly undervalued.

Big Disruptors - things that are going to change the world and the way you interact with it. You can think of Microsoft and Apple as the two early disruptors that kicked everything off. We had a whole bunch more in the original bubble. In bubble 2.0 they are things like Amazon, Air BnB, Paypal/Venmo, Uber, Lyft, Facebook, Google, Apple 2.0.

Non-US - although the US has been the bell weather for a long-time. If you take a step back and look at civilizations over time you can see that the US is just the very latest of many countries to own the, "most powerful in the world title". It is hard to imagine the US will always remain on top and easy to think how countries like China and India will one day overtake the US.

Silver/Gold/Crypto - things that hold value as countries erode their currency as they engage in financial engineering on mass scale. As a long-time professional athlete I have witnessed firsthand how athletes have tried to one-up each other with the use of drugs to increase their performance sometimes to their own long-term detriment. This is no difference in what countries do by printing money and trying to financially engineer themselves into a better and more prosperous country. We can also look at companies doing the same thing, ie. borrowing to buy back stock and thus control the denominator in the widely reference PE ratio.

Real Estate - Real estate is the 5th and final pillar and should only include what you need to own and live in. We all need a place to call home. We don't need rental properties unless that is our full time job. We don't need 3rd, 4th, and 5th homes. If you want to investment more in real estate either get into the business full-time or buy REITs. Additional real estate for those that are non-professionals is going to be more headache than they are worth. You will never manage properties as well as a professional real estate management firm can do so.