I wanted to do a quick post on what I think is going to happen to Bitcoin prices with the upcoming
mainstream launch of Bitcoin Futures of the CBOE and CME. Bitcoin Futures are set to begin trading this Sunday on the CME.
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To be clear this is not an offer or recommendation to buy or sell bitcoin, it is simply my prediction that I wanted to put on paper. At a later date I may give some of my background and history. In short, I have been investing since I was 8 and I sold my first financial website at 18 in the first Dot-com bubble to a publicly traded NASDAQ company. I like the idea of putting ideas and moves on paper as a sort of reconciliation of my own thoughts and forces me to think about my decision critically. - by putting them in a blog I am simply making them public.
My own prediction for this event is not looking at any sort of technical indicators and of course has no traditional valuation metrics - it is simply a poker hand where I am not even looking at the cards and playing the opponent 100%. Anyone that says they know for sure what is going to happen is downright lying, there is no certainty in life but death and taxes.
With that, I believe we are seeing a huge rotation into Bitcoin in anticipation of the launch of Bitcoin futures. Yes I know they already exist to some extent, but this is mainstream, this is the CME. With that I think this will be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" sort of event even though we already know Bitcoin futures are going to commence. As a result of the rotation, money is being pulled out of ALT coins to fund the Bitcoin explosion.
After the launch of Bitcoin Futures I believe it will plateau and possibly consolidate but drift lower. Money will move from Bitcoin to other ALT coins and I suspect Ethereum will be the biggest beneficiary. The rush into Ethereum will then further be exacerbated by news of Ethereum also launching on the CME and CBOE for futures trading.
As far as price goes, I don't have the faintest clue what the actual price will and my prediction would be at best a guess. Regardless I believe that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin into 2018. Also, it is possible the rotation back into ALT could happen before Sunday as people try to get ahead of the move and get fearful of possible liquidity issues with Bitcoin.
As a disclaimer, this is how I have actually positioned my cryptocurrency holdings, having recently liquidated all Bitcoin and opting for both Litecoin and Ethereum. I would instead like to buy a basket of ALT coins, but unfortunately that doesn't exist yet and my bitcoin exchange COINBASE / GDAX only has these two other options. If at some point an ETF of cryptocurrencies is created I will move some funds into that.