2019 Market Crash??? - Pivotal Moment in SECULAR Bull market

Today, 10/3/2019, the market dropped and then popped (Trump Tariff Put) after a disappointing ISM non-manufacturing index. This is on the back of a bad ISM number earlier in the week which caused the market to knife down leaving a noticeable gap down in the market indices (SP&500). In irony, bonds rose and gold rose as well. Something is starting to smell fishy but gaps in major indices like to be filled so the probability that it remains unfilled is small.

The market/economy has a crucial test tomorrow with the jobs number and I wanted to highlight  intermediate possibilities in the market. My prediction(s) are highlighted in bold. 

  1. Jobs number is bad - market tanks. This causes Donald Trump to panic and as a result he works to get a trade deal down next week and one is announced. As a result the market skyrockets initially and closes the gap on the S&P500. From here there are two options
    1. The market continues higher pushing to all time high and then we have two options again:
      1. The market tanks at some point in time, very rapidly and unexpectedly and we start a new bear market
      2. The secular bull market stays intact and we live happily ever after for the foreseeable future
    2. The market closes the gap, the algos/CTAs immediately flip and the market tanks on the largest reversal trade we have ever seen.
  2. Jobs number is good - Market slowly creeps higher into the trade meeting. Market closes the gap and then trade deal news breaks and then:
    1. Market continues higher and...
      1. We move to all times high and then the market rapidly deteriorates unexpectedly and we start a new bear market
      2. The secular bull market stays intact and we live happily ever after for the foreseeable future
    2. The market closes the gap, the algos/CTAs immediately flip and the market tanks on the largest reversal trade we have ever seen.

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